Bitcoin soars past $115,000 as on-chain metrics hint at a potential rally.

Bitcoin’s recent surge over $115,000 has captured market attention, surpassing the realized price for medium-term holders. While short-term holders face losses, the broader sentiment among analysts remains mixed, with some predicting the cryptocurrency could reach $150,000 by Christmas.

Bitcoin Surpasses Key Price Levels

In September, Bitcoin’s value climbed from approximately $108,000 to over $115,000. This 4% increase represents a modest yet significant gain, with new on-chain data suggesting the cryptocurrency may be gearing up for further upward momentum, potentially leading to new all-time highs.

According to analysis from CryptoQuant contributor ShayanMarkets, the Bitcoin rebound from $107,000 to $114,000 has pushed the asset above the realized price for medium-term holders—those who last moved their coins within the past three to six months. This realized price hovers near $114,000, considered a critical pivot point that often indicates market sentiment and potential selling pressure.

Exceeding this level reduces the chance of immediate selling from this group. ShayanMarkets noted that a firm break and consolidation beyond the $114,000 mark could signal renewed confidence among medium-term holders and lay the groundwork for a new bullish phase, potentially driving Bitcoin to historic levels. However, the analyst cautioned that failing to maintain this level might weaken sentiment, raising the likelihood of deeper corrective movements in the short term.

Short-Term Holders Under Pressure

Other on-chain indicators paint a more cautious picture. CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlighted the behavior of short-term holders (STH) by examining the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), adjusted with a 30-day moving average. This metric reflects whether investors are selling their coins at a profit or a loss.

Gaah observed that after four months above the break-even threshold, the STH SOPR has dipped into negative territory, indicating that short-term holders are now realizing losses. This shift suggests a temporary loss of confidence among speculative investors, who are more sensitive to price fluctuations.

Despite Bitcoin’s broader climb from $60,000 to $125,000 over the past year, the STH SOPR metric has shown declining peaks. Historically, significant price increases have coincided with SOPR readings in the “Extreme Greed” zone, reflecting strong retail participation. This time, however, such dynamics have not been observed, suggesting that institutional investors may be leading recent gains.

Gaah added that historically, market peaks are confirmed when short-term holders exhibit signs of extreme greed. Since this has not occurred, the analyst posited that the current pullback may simply be part of a healthy consolidation rather than an indicator of a long-term reversal.

Mixed Outlook as Year Ends

Market observers remain divided on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. Some analysts warn that the cryptocurrency might be nearing a peak in its current cycle, while others anticipate a slow down in September before a new rally in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Predictions vary significantly, with some forecasting Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by Christmas if bullish momentum persists. Currently, the asset trades at approximately $115,050, reflecting a 0.7% increase over the past 24 hours as it attempts to build support above key levels.

With both bullish and cautious signals present, investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to stay above the realized price for medium-term holders, as this could determine whether the next phase of the rally begins or if a deeper correction ensues.