Elon Musk’s path to becoming the world’s first trillionaire may not be as certain as many believe.

In 1916, John D. Rockefeller became the world’s first billionaire, an unprecedented milestone that, when adjusted for inflation, translates to an astounding $350 billion in today’s economy. For over 80 years, he held the title of the wealthiest person in history until Elon Musk surpassed him in 2021. Today, Musk’s net worth is estimated at $368 billion. Surprisingly, however, a new analysis suggests that Larry Ellison may have the clearest path to becoming the first trillionaire. This article explores the wealth trajectories of these tech titans and examines who truly stands a chance at reaching this monumental financial milestone.

Larry Ellison: A Hidden Contender

Larry Ellison is the co-founder and chairman of Oracle, which went public in March 1986, just a day before Microsoft. At that time, Bill Gates owned a significant 45% stake in his company, which has since dwindled to about 1.3%. Had he maintained a 30% stake, Gates could have been a trillionaire today, given Microsoft’s current market cap of $3.88 trillion.

In contrast, Ellison has increased his stake in Oracle over the past four decades. He currently owns 41% of the company, equating to a net worth of approximately $287 billion based on Oracle’s market cap of $700 billion. With an additional estimated $20 billion from real estate and a stake in Tesla, Ellison’s total net worth is around $305 billion, positioning him as the second richest individual globally.

For Ellison to join the ranks of trillionaires, Oracle’s market cap would need to rise to $2.39 trillion, roughly 3.4 times its current size. Given the company’s recent growth, particularly in AI and cloud computing, this goal may not be far-fetched. As of now, the leading companies by market value include:

1. NVIDIA – $4.455 trillion
2. Microsoft – $3.880 trillion
3. Apple – $3.403 trillion

Though Ellison is the oldest contender at 80, he is investing significantly in health research, enhancing his chances of reaching the trillion-dollar threshold in the coming decades.

Elon Musk: The Volatile Titan

Elon Musk’s wealth hinges on his stakes in Tesla and SpaceX, giving him a paper fortune greater than any in history but also exposing him to considerable market volatility. Musk holds approximately 13% of Tesla (around 412 million shares) along with an additional 304 million exercisable options, for an effective stake of about 21%. This makes his stake worth roughly $214 billion based on Tesla’s current market cap of $1.02 trillion.

Musk’s 43% ownership in SpaceX, which is valued at $350 billion, is poised to increase if the company successfully raises funds at a $400 billion valuation. This could boost his stake from $150 billion to around $172 billion without selling shares.

What would it take for Musk to achieve a net worth of $1 trillion?

• Tesla’s market cap would need to reach $3.5 trillion, increasing the value of his stake to about $735 billion.
• SpaceX must climb to a valuation of $600 billion, boosting his stake to $240 billion.

This combination would push Musk’s net worth to approximately $975 billion, making him a near-trillionaire on paper.

Larry vs. Elon: A Competitive Analysis

Which scenario seems more plausible?

• Will Tesla triple in value from $1 trillion to $3.5 trillion while SpaceX nearly doubles?
• Or will Oracle grow from $700 billion to $2.4 trillion?

Interestingly, Musk’s ascent could also benefit Ellison, as Ellison owns around 15 million shares of Tesla. Should Tesla’s market cap reach $3.5 trillion, Ellison could gain an additional $50 billion.

Mark Zuckerberg and Others in the Race

Mark Zuckerberg, who owns about 13% of Meta, has a net worth nearing $277 billion, making him the fourth-richest person globally. For Zuckerberg to achieve trillionaire status, Meta’s market cap would need to grow to approximately $7.46 trillion, a significant challenge but not impossible, especially considering his youth at 41 and Meta’s capacity to innovate.

Long-Shot Contenders

Several other billionaires would require their companies to reach nearly unattainable market caps to join the trillionaire ranks:

• Jeff Bezos – 9.5% of Amazon, age 61, needs ~$10.05 trillion Amazon market cap.
• Steve Ballmer – 4% of Microsoft, age 69, needs ~$24.88 trillion Microsoft market cap.
• Sergey Brin – 5.5% of Alphabet, age 51, needs ~$18.09 trillion Alphabet market cap.
• Larry Page – 5.5% of Alphabet, age 52, needs ~$18.09 trillion Alphabet market cap.
• Jensen Huang – 3.5% of Nvidia, age 62, needs ~$28.49 trillion Nvidia market cap.

Trillionaire Contenders Snapshot