Rare bitcoin gains in September challenge history: data suggests a potential 50% rally to $170,000 in Q4.

In a surprising turn of events, Bitcoin is closing September with a rare positive gain of 4.5%. Historically, a green September has often paved the way for a robust rally in the fourth quarter, raising forecasts for Bitcoin to reach around $170,000 by year’s end.

Historic Trends Suggest a Potential Surge

Although history doesn’t repeat itself, it often exhibits familiar patterns. In the context of Bitcoin, a positive September has historically indicated a bullish trend for the final quarter.

According to historical data, in the instances where Bitcoin finished September on a positive note—specifically in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024—the subsequent fourth quarters yielded impressive average returns exceeding 53%. During these times, returns fluctuated between 45% and 66%.

If this trend persists, Bitcoin could potentially soar to the vicinity of $170,000 before the year ends. The month of October typically acts as a catalyst for these significant movements, averaging a gain of 21.8%, followed by further increases in November.

This seasonal effect becomes especially pronounced in the years following Bitcoin’s halving events, as an influx of capital coupled with bullish market positioning propels the asset into a new price discovery phase.

Main Indicators Point to an Uptrend

This bullish seasonal configuration is underscored by fundamental shifts within the blockchain itself. Key on-chain indicators are currently signaling a strong market shift towards the bullish side.

For instance, the Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which tracks the difference between buying and selling volumes, has turned positive over a 90-day period for the first time since mid-July. This indicates a clear “buyer-dominant phase,” where buying pressure is decisively surpassing selling activity.

Additionally, the Coinbase premium index has highlighted consistent and aggressive accumulation by American investors throughout the third quarter. The alignment of these two crucial on-chain indicators reinforces the notion that a new wave of buying interest is not just on the horizon; it is already unfolding.

With the stage set and signals aligning, the last quarter of the year could prove to be a decisive and explosive period for the world’s leading digital asset.