It was back in August 2014 when the real danger began, and the first signs of war captivated an alarm. Unmarked Russian troops covertly invaded eastern Ukraine, where the separatist conflict had grown out of its control. The Russian air force began harassing the neighboring Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are members of NATO.
The US pledged that it would uphold its commitment to defend those countries as if they were American soil, but later staged military exercises a few hundred yards from Russia’s border.
Russia-Ukraine tension which has triggered one of the greatest security crises in Europe ever since the Cold War in 2014. The United States dramatically raised the world alarm on Friday over Ukraine, warning that a Russian invasion starting with civilians caught under aerial bombing could start in days and telling US citizens to leave within 48 hours.
“An attack by more than 100,000 Russian troops currently massed next to Ukraine could occur any day now,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters in Washington.
Dismissing speculation that the Kremlin would never trigger the crisis while the Beijing Olympics were still underway in close Russian ally China, Sullivan said such an attack could occur before the Games end on February 20.
“The scenario of an imminent attack is a very, very distinct possibility,” Sullivan said.
It was not yet known whether President Vladimir Putin had taken a decision, saying “we can’t predict the exact determination,” Sullivan made clear that the United States was bracing for the worst, including a “rapid assault” on the capital Kyiv.
A US official said Biden would speak with Putin on Saturday, while the French government said that President Emmanuel Macron would also be calling the Russian leader on Saturday.
The Russian President has repeatedly denied that he plans to invade, but is not backing down in his demands that Nato will never let Ukraine join the bloc.
ERIK ROMANENKOTASS VIA GETTY IMAGES
An estimated 130,000 Russian troops are gathered near the Ukraine border.
Russia currently has about 130,000 troops on the Ukraine border, according to Ukraine’s military. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the Kremlin has drawn up plans for a military operation involving up to 175,000 troops that could begin in the coming weeks. While it is not clear whether President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has decided to launch an attack — and Moscow has said repeatedly in recent weeks that it has no plans to do so — analysts say the country is well on its way toward constructing the architecture needed for a significant military intervention in Ukraine.
Here’s how the current situation looks as fears of an invasion continue to grow, and the background to the current tensions.
What’s the latest in talks between Russia and Ukraine?
Talks in Berlin between Ukraine and Russia, joined by France and Germany, at first held hope for some progress as they lasted into Friday morning, but at the end, nothing noticeable emerged.
“Unfortunately, almost nine hours of talks have ended without any significant results” , Russian Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak said.
“And Russia’s troop build-up and military exercises on the border with Ukraine amount to an escalation”, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said.
Why would Putin want to invade Ukraine?
The source of the tensions comes down to Ukraine’s separation from the Soviet Union and ties with the West.
Ukraine has ambitions to join Nato, which President Putin sees as a direct threat to Russia’s power in the East.
After being part of the Russian empire for centuries, and subsequently part of the USSR, it declared itself independent in 1991 when the Soviet Union dissolved after the Cold War.
There has been tension between Ukraine’s old ties to Russia and new allegiances with Western nations ever since, and President Putin is keen to regain control of the country’s former territories.
His favored candidate in the 2004 Ukrainian election, Viktor Yanukovych, was initially declared the winner but the result was invalidated amid reports of widespread fraud and voter intimidation, and after widespread protests. Mr Yanukovych lost the rerun of the election.
Mr Yanukovych did manage to regain power in 2010, but was ousted again in 2014 after huge protests after he rejected an association agreement with the EU in favor of bolstering relations with Moscow.
Russia responded by seizing and annexing the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine in 2014, before throwing its weight behind a separatist insurgency that broke out in Ukraine’s east.
There have been skirmishes at the border ever since. More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting in Ukraine’s eastern region Donbas, and at least two million people have been forced to flee their homes.
A 2015 peace agreement organized by France and Germany which helped end large-scale battles, but efforts to reach a political settlement have failed.
Russia has accused Ukraine of failing to honour a 2015 ceasefire deal and accuses the West of not encouraging Ukrainian compliance. Ukraine accuses Russia and the separatists of breaking the deal and continuing to attack its forces.
