Temperatures in Assam would rise by 2.2 degrees Celsius, with 38% more intense rainfall in the next 30 years

Assam has always been very vulnerable to climate change due to its physical proximity to the delta region. Assam is known for its heavy rainfall and subtropical climate. The flood is a yearly occurrence in the state. Droughts occur on occasion in the region. Despite the fact that climate change has exacerbated both floods and droughts, the issue of Assam has gotten less attention thus far.

The majority of the government's efforts have been directed toward rehabilitation rather than coping with the new reality. According to a state action plan, Assam is anticipated to face an increase in temperature of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius over the next 30 years, with an increase in intense rainfall of 38%. Assam has experienced at least three flood waves this year. The first two, which occurred in May and June, were catastrophic. At the time, the Dima Hasao district saw extraordinary landslides.

Pictures of a train at Haflong railway station being pushed off the track owing to the effect of mudslides from neighbouring hills went viral. This steep district had been devastated, and all communication and connectivity to Dima Hasao had been disrupted for a few days. It took more than two months to restore railway service on a route that runs through Dima Hasao and connects three northeastern states.

The Assam government had to arrange for basics such as petrol and diesel via helicopters. However, in this case as well, all government agencies were more concerned with restoring infrastructure than with finding a solution to the widespread devastation. A senior government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, agreed that there is a need to shift focus away from rehabilitation after a natural disaster occurs.

In addition to being in one of the world's heaviest rainfall zones, Assam features a number of important rivers that originate primarily in the lower Himalayan region. The week-long rainstorm causes the rivers in the state to build a large volume of water, which frequently results in flash floods in metropolitan areas. Flooding has become a common occurrence at Kaziranga National Park. Because it is located in the floodplains of the river Brahmaputra, it experiences frequent flooding. Every monsoon, the river floods and submerges about two-thirds (66%) of Kaziranga, claiming animal lives in the process. The worst disaster that Kaziranga has ever seen occurred in 2017, when floods killed at least 350 animals at the national park.

Annual floods are also a risk in lower and upper Assam. The Brahmaputra River erosion problem has reached a difficult stage in several locations, forcing a considerable number of people to relocate. After the first two floods devastated lower and upper Assam, the third bout of flooding killed at least 70,000 people. Soil erosion, along with climatic change, has resulted in a tremendous crisis for the people of Majuli, the world's largest river island. Over the last six decades, the Brahmaputra River has devoured half of the island, with a flood in 2017 leaving a significant hole in the island's erosion. This has had a significant impact on agriculture and livelihood.

According to a previous year's report of Assam's Standing Committee on Water Resources (SCWR), many rivers' embankments have become old and require raising and strengthening, as well as bank protection measures such as revetment or reinforced cement concrete porcupines, which require significant capital investment. This June, the poor state of the embankment caused mayhem in Silchar, Assam's second most populous town. Due to a break in an embankment on the Barak river, the city experienced the worst type of urban flood. For approximately 11 days, 90% of dwellings were flooded in flood water, with the water level peaking to 12 feet in some spots.

According to India Meteorological Department rainfall data, the actual rainfall in the Cachar district from June 1 to June 27 was 726.3 mm, compared to the usual rainfall of 386.1 mm, representing an 88% deviation. When the deviation is equal to or greater than 60%, the weather service refers to the rainfall as a "big surplus." In reality, this year's rainfall data indicates an abrupt pattern with maximum rainfall occurring from mid-May to June. However, during the peak monsoon season, which runs from July to September, the state had a drought-like scenario. The third flood happened in the latter half of September.

Climate change, according to environmentalists, has changed the state's rainfall pattern. Many believe that understanding the role of climate change in the frequent occurrence of floods in Assam may take even longer. However, much of the rain that can be expected throughout the monsoon season has now arrived within a few weeks in recent years. According to scientists, this obviously indicates unpredictability in rainfall, which normally accounts for climate change across the entire region.

(source : IANS)